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ICAC秘書處發布2021年9月「Cotton This Month」
種類:資訊發布  發布單位:國際合作處  發布日期:2021-09-06 16:37
2021年9月棉花本月的亮點包括:
需求成長及供給緊繃造成棉市進入牛市(多頭格局);
新冠疫情仍對重振棉業造成威脅,但尚未停止市場動能;
預計2021/22全球棉產修正為2,490萬公噸,棉作面積修正為3,280萬公頃。
ICAC秘書處預估2021/22全球棉花價格落於每磅76美分至126美分之間,中間點為98.2美分。

Cotton This Month
Changes in Supply and Demand Estimates (from 11th August 2021)

Perfect mix for a bullish market: strengthening world cotton demand, expected imbalance in cotton supply and demand and tighter ending stocks.

The cotton market is riding on a number of bull variables, world cotton demand is showing signs of recovery and strength with world exports for 2021/22 being revised upwards to 10.2 million tonnes and world consumption revised upwards to 25.8 million tonnes.

Cotton prices have been trending upwards with the Cotlook A index opening high in the 2021/22 season (which started in August 2021) with the season average being 101.34 cents per lb. Cotton prices are also high in China, with the CC Index averaging at 126 cents/lb since the season began.

The opening of economies, activities and business has revived consumer demand for textiles and clothing. Although the spread of the Covid variants and uneven access to vaccinations in the world has kept the threat of the ongoing pandemic alive, consumption shows no signs of slowing. Retail sales are picking up, fueled by the untapped extra savings from last year, and the confidence of dealing with repercussions of the pandemic has kept the demand high.

World cotton production for the 2021/22 season has been revised to 24.9 million tonnes, with area under cotton also revised to 32.8 million hectares, mostly because of the downward revisions in the US cotton production for 2021/22 season. The future expectation of lower world production fueled by lower estimates of cotton production by major cotton-producing countries like India, China, USA (compared to last month’s revision) amongst others has boosted the prices for cotton even higher.

The expected imbalance in supply and demand, high market demand gaining power from the strong revival in consumption in the developed countries and the ongoing disruptions on the supply side with growing infections in cotton-consuming and textile-supplying countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam, have created a perfect mix for a bullish market.

To add to this, WTO’s Goods Barometer — a composite leading indicator for world trade — had indicated a robust recovery and an accelerated pace of trade expansion, with a predicted 8% pickup in the volume of world merchandise trade in 2021.

Projected decline in world cotton stocks in 2021/22
Higher demand compared to production is expected to cause ending stocks to decline for the second year in a row to stand at 19.7 million tonnes, 5% lower than the previous season.

A fall in consumption in 2019/20 had increased the ending stocks by 16% to 22 million tonnes, highest in the last 5 years.

The worldwide stock including China at the end of 21/22 season is currently estimated to be at 9.3 million tonnes, 1.5% higher than the 20/21 season. The stocks outside China — amounting to 56% of the global stocks — are currently estimated to drop by 9% to 10.3 million tonnes.

Price projections
The Secretariat’s current price forecast of the season-average A index for 2021/22 ranges from 76 cents to 126 cents, with a midpoint at 98.20 cents per pound.

Cotton This Month is published at the beginning of the month with the Cotton Update published mid-month. The cotton Update is a mid-month report with updated information on supply/demand estimates and prices. The next Cotton Update will be released on 15th September 2021. The next Cotton This Month be released on 1st October 2021.


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更新日期:2021-06-29
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