On July 15, 2024, the Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA) released the "2023 National Electricity Supply and Demand Report." The report highlights key factors affecting electricity supply, energy-saving measures, and outlines a 10-year plan (2024-2033) for managing electricity demand and supply. By 2030, electricity demand is expected to increase by 12-13%. To address the growing demand, driven largely by the AI industry, three major constructions are required: the new power generation units, grid (substation) upgrades, and energy storage systems. The MOEA urges public support for these infrastructure projects to ensure a stable power supply and meets demand.
The MOEA noted that since the Russia-Ukraine war began in 2022, global fuel price fluctuations have triggered inflation and interest rate adjustments. Coupled with US-China tensions, extreme weather, and geopolitical instability, end-user electricity demand has been sluggish. In 2023, Taiwan's electricity consumption decreased by 1.0%, with the industrial sector experiencing a 2.6% decline due to reduced economic activity and capacity utilization, resulting in a drop of about 4.1 billion kWh compared to 2022.
When forecasting electricity demand for 2024, the MOEA considered economic conditions, the estimated 3.94% GDP growth rate for 2024 announced by the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics (DGBAS) of the Executive Yuan in May, AI-driven semiconductor industry expansion, and electric vehicle promotion. National electricity demand is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.5% between 2024 and 2028. AI technologies alone are projected to increase electricity demand eightfold, from 0.24 GW in 2023 to 2.24 GW by 2028. As AI applications expand, national electricity demand is forecasted to grow by approximately 2.8% annually from 2024 to 2033.
Regarding power supply, by the end of 2023, installed capacity of solar photovoltaic reached 12.418 GW, and offshore wind reached 1.763 GW. Solar power currently meets demand peaks in the daytime for six hours, therefore, shifting the focus of power dispatch to managing the three-hour nighttime peak load. To address the intermittency of solar and wind power, quick-response hydroelectric units and gas-fired units are essential for stabilizing the green energy system. The government plans to build gas-fired units at Datan, Xingda, Taichung, and privately-owned plants like Sen Ba, connecting them to the grid over time. However, considering the extended construction timelines for these units, including environmental assessments, key milestones, and local government support, uncertainties remain. As a result, a higher reserve margin is necessary to allow flexibility in resource allocation. Despite pandemic-related delays in offshore wind and solar installations, the government is working to complete these projects on schedule. The goal is for renewable energy to account for 15% of electricity generation by 2025 and 20% by November 2026.
Finally, the MOEA stressed that ongoing geopolitical conflicts, fuel price volatility, and shifts in the global economic and trade landscape have affected Taiwan's economy and electricity supply. To address the growing need for green energy, driven by net-zero goals and industrial demand, the government will actively promote green power projects, optimize power distribution, and enhance grid resilience. Additionally, the government will accelerate coal-to-gas conversion projects to reduce air pollution and carbon emissions, improve air quality, and ensure a stable power supply.
Spokesperson: Deputy Director-General, Chun-Li Lee
Energy Administration, Minister of Economic Affairs
Phone Number: 02-2775-7700
Mobile: 0936-250-838
Email:
[email protected]Business contact: Director, Ching-Sheng Chen
Energy Administration, Minister of Economic Affairs
Phone Number: 02-2775-7753
Mobile: 0983-499-890
Email:
[email protected]